Talking about the unthinkable

If actually cutting greenhouse gas emissions isn’t going very well (largely due to incessant foot dragging by politicians), how about coming up with some new technology or chemical to put up into the atmosphere to help neutralize global warming?

Recently, 50 respected climate, energy, and economics researchers met at Cambridge University to discuss that very question. The process is called “geoengineering” and it basically involves tinkering with the planet’s climate to find alternate ways to prevent the very worst effects of runaway global warming.

In theory, geoengineering is certainly possible. After all, that’s what we’ve unintentionally been doing for decades with gases like carbon dioxide, that cause global warming. And “aerosols” or soot put in the atmosphere from airplanes, ships, factories and other sources has also been shown to affect the climate. Sometimes, these tiny particles in the air absorb heat and hold it closer to the earth, adding to the overall warming trend. Other times, the particles can cause localized cooling by reflecting sunlight back into space. Indian researchers, for example, now say that air pollution in India has reduced the amount of sunlight the country receives by five per cent over the past 20 years.

But geoengineering in this context specifically refers to intentionally tinkering with the atmosphere – in this case to help mask the effects of our other unintentional tinkering. Would it work? Should we even talk about it?

According to those researchers at the Cambridge meeting, the answer to the second question is a qualified “yes.” In an article in the journal Science, they point out that while they worry that the public and politicians might gravitate towards these technical solutions, they feel that global warming is too dangerous to avoid discussing all available options. Even if they are a last resort.

Huge knowledge gaps exist in geoengineering solutions. One idea involves seeding the oceans with iron or phosphate to help stimulate the growth of plankton, which would theoretically help remove carbon from the atmosphere. However, no one knows what else it would do or if it would work. In fact, parties to the London Convention, an international treaty governing ocean pollution, recently agreed that such large-scale ocean seeding is not justified given gaps in scientific knowledge.

Another idea involves spraying sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, mimicking the effect of large-scale volcanic eruptions. Similar to what is happening in India, the theory is that this layer of pollution high in the atmosphere would reflect some sunlight away from the earth and act as a buffer against the heating effect of increasing carbon dioxide emissions.

For each theory, the conference participants pointed out gaps and concerns – which ranged from the practical (cost and technical ability) to potentially devastating ecological consequences that are, by and large, unpredictable. To experiment with the atmosphere is to experiment with life as we know it. After all, this isn’t a test tube. This is all the known life in the universe – and it includes us.

The fact that some researchers are even willing to discuss such radical and dangerous methods to slow global warming should be a wake-up call to world leaders meeting at the international climate change conference in Bali, Indonesia next month. If serious scientists are actually contemplating such drastic measures, it ought to show just how dire the situation has become.

What is desperately needed, the researchers say, is what we have yet to see – genuine efforts to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions on a global scale. That’s why this next climate conference is so important, fresh on the heels of the IPCC co-winning the Nobel Peace Prize. This is an opportunity to look beyond Kyoto to the next level of engagement and agree to the substantial greenhouse gas reduction targets that scientists say we need if we are to avoid the worst of global warming.

Cooperation from the United States and China, as the world’s largest total greenhouse gas emitters, is obviously critical to reducing global greenhouse pollution. But countries like Canada could play an important role if we lead rather than follow and step up, rather than cower behind our big brother. It isn’t good enough to just hope we don’t have to attempt the unthinkable. We have to actually take serious steps to prevent it.